Trump’s legacy hinges on the midterms – and he knows it
The polls and history favor Democrats winning the House this November. What is likely to happen if they do? How will they go after Trump, and how will Trump try to govern?
Charles Lipson
Peter B. Ritzma Professor Emeritus
University of Chicago
Frequent contributor:
Real Clear Politics
Spectator | World
The Telegraph
Wall Street Journal
How to make sense of Minnesota
The phone call Monday between Pres. Trump and Gov. Walz might be an opening. But to grasp it, both sides will have to back away from hardened positions on immigration enforcement. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is moving ahead full-steam on financial fraud by Somali immigrants.
Trump’s credible threat at Davos
The headline from Trump’s Davos speech is clear: I won’t use military force to take Greenland. That’s what the President told the world’s leading politicians and business executives at the World Economic Forum. But there was a lot more to the speech. Some was a list of his greatest hits over the past year. Some were grievances--and promises to retaliate on trade if we don't get fair, reciprocal treatment.. And some was an ominous silence about what he was about to do to Iran.
Greenland, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico… who will US target next?
When the earthquake is big, the porcelain rattles far and wide. And that’s exactly what’s happening now… in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and even Greenland. The plates are rattling after the Trump Administration’s swift, successful mission to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who was allegedly a major figure in the country’s international drug trafficking. Both husband and wife now face criminal charges in the US. Who else is rattled? Well, the Democratic Party fo...
Trump’s desperation is getting dangerous for Ukraine
Trump may want a deal, but Putin wants all of Ukraine. To prevent that loss, Zelensky needs Trump's support, which means the US president has to see that it is Putin, not Zeldnsky, who is blocking a deal.
Is Trump becoming a lame-duck president?
American presidents face an inescapable dilemma as soon as they are reelected. Because they cannot run again, they find it increasingly difficult to dominate the national agenda. Pres. Trump must delay the “lame duck” curse if he and his party are to hold the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms.
Far left is the new face of the Democratic party
(1) Democrats Sweep; painful for Trump and Republicans, though the party in power typically loses in "off years" (2) Mamdani's Victory Makes the Far-Left the Face of the Democratic Party
● Democrats Will Stress "Moderates" Victories in NJ, VA
● Republicans Will Tag Opponents with Mamdani, Socialism
● Democrats Will Stress "Moderates" Victories in NJ, VA
● Republicans Will Tag Opponents with Mamdani, Socialism
JD Vance has cast a dark shadow over US relations with Israel
J.D. Vance offered some sharp criticism of Israel in response to student questions at Ole Miss. His stance highlights the growing criticism of the Jewish State on the “populist right” and marks an important change in Republican politics, one that is likely to be contests within the party and reinforced by the progressive left.
The real reason Democrats are in meltdown over Trump’s White House ballroom
Why are Democrats So Incensed by Trump’s Building a New Ballroom at the White House? Because, for them, his destruction of the East Wing resembles his destruction of the Constitution. Republicans reject the comparison—they are perplexed and bemused by the fury-- and say Trump is giving the nation (and future presidents) a valuable gift at no cost to taxpayers.
Trump has moved the Middle East’s tectonic plates. It’s a nightmare for Putin and Xi
The most important, and most immediate, consequence of the Gaza deal is how it is likely to prompt a wider accommodation with Israel. Preventing that is why Iran sponsored the attack in the first place. But Israel first extinguished the terrorist “ring of fire” around its borders and then, together with the Trump administration, set back Iran’s nuclear program by years. Russia and China were pushed out of the region and the US can now focus on the Pacific Rim and containing China.
Has Israel won?
Two years after the October 7 attacks, first by Hamas, then by Hezbollah, has a war-weary Israel accomplished its main strategic goals? Yes, for the most part. It has ended its encirclement by Iran’s proxy forces (known as the “ring of fire”) and ended the constant, lethal attacks on its people, which gave cover to Iran as it secretly finished developing nuclear weapons, which could exterminate Israel’s entire population and wipe the Jewish State off the map. And it has emerged as the “strong horse” in the region, militarily and economically. But it hasn’t gotten the hostages back, finished the fighting in Gaza, or developed a viable plan for Gaza after the war ends. The plan is necessary, not only for Israel’s security but to complete the Abraham Accords.
Trump has set Democrats up for a shutdown humiliation
Senate Democrats, afraid of their left-wing base, won’t sign off on a simple deal to keep the government running for the next few months at current levels. They demand sweeteners, and Trump won’t give them. Trump has a very different plan. If the Democrats force a government shutdown, Trump and his allies will use it to cut progressive programs and the federal workforce. Democrats, “the party of government,” have painted themselves into a corner.
Dallas shooting was a political act
The Dallas shooting was a political act for two reasons: the killer’s apparent goals (written on his ammo shells) and the likely implications, which underscore several issues that strongly favor Republicans: public order, serious law enforcement, and closed borders, including ICE enforcement. Democrats find it difficult to respond directly because their activist base has far different views.
Jimmy Kimmel is back
Jimmy Kimmel’s broadcast has made a lot more news off the air than on it. The latest is that ABC will resume the show Tuesday night and that some 400 Hollywood celebrities have signed a petition supporting their friend. If Hollywood’s reaction to Kimmel’s troubles has been predictable, the reaction from Republican politicians has been more interesting – and surprisingly varied. All Republicans loathed what Kimmel said, but some prominent ones, led by Ted Cruz, objected (rightly) to the FCC threatening ABC's license over it.
Utah’s Spencer Cox has displayed America's best values
Gov. Spencer Cox of Utah rose above the maddening crowd when he spoke of Charlie Kirk's assassination and the apprehension of his suspected killer. It was the second time in as many days that Cox voiced thoughts we all needed to hear. Instead of rage, the governor’s plainspoken, heartfelt language, together with his quotes from Charlie, underscored our country’s highest and best values. They were sober, profound thoughts, suffused with moral clarity, and we needed to hear them. Gov. Cox deserves our gratitude and praise. .
The Vile Celebration of a Political Killing
Political killings are among the vilest acts in a democracy. They striking at its core values: free speech, free and peaceful assembly, and an orderly means of choosing leaders. The damage is compounded when a nation suffers several such killings (or narrow escapes) within a few years, as America has.
The death throes of free speech in Britain – and its opponents
Britain’s leaders have refused to stand up for their country’s basic values and traditions in the face of ferocious, illiberal assaults, stemming mainly from these hostile immigrant communities, often supported by progressive elites, who share the leaders’ lack of cultural self-confidence.
The Trump-Zelensky meetings offered a show of Western unity
Did Pres. Trump make any progress toward ending the war in Ukraine after successive meetings with Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, and key NATO partners? The short answer is “yes, but it’s very slight, and there are still formidable obstacles, which could block a final deal.” The biggest obstacles are Ukraine agreeing to cede sovereign territory and Russia agreeing to the presence of a combined European-American military force within Ukraine, meant to prevent another Russian attack. The joint military force is the most important proposal to emerge from yesterday’s meeting.
Trump’s shrewd move in DC will resonate across the US
President Trump’s initiative to restore law and order to the streets of the nation’s capital is a smart political move. All Americans consider Washington “our city,” and we want it safe. We can see on the nightly news that it is not, and we’re not happy about it. If Trump can turn that around, he will get well-deserved credit, not from the legacy media but from the public.Trump and his party will reap a second major benefit, as well. If he can lessen the muggings, car jackings and armed robberie...
At Columbia, Trump has won a major victory for Western values
Columbia University has just agreed to a massive $220 million settlement with the Trump administration after a fight that centred around rampant anti-Semitism on campus. The university has also agreed to a number of policy reforms, designed to limit future attacks on Jewish students and faculty.Of the settlement, $200 million will go to the federal government and the remaining $20 million to settle employment discrimination claims. Separately, the university has suspended or expelled students wh...
Axing the Department of Education will improve education
The big education news this week is a court ruling that allows the Trump administration to begin cutting jobs at the Department of Education. That’s a plus for democracy since candidate Trump pledged he would do that. It’s a plus for education since it gives more discretion (and the same money) to states and cuts out a lot of bureaucratic middlemen, which means more money for school kids.
What’s the matter with Chicago?
The old song calls Chicago "that toddlin’ town.” Now, that great city has gone from toddlin’ to totterin’, thanks largely to incompetent governance by a succession of local officials – and far better leadership and lower taxes elsewhere in the country, in the places people are moving to.
A trio of scandals
“Who will guard the guardians?” That question, posed two millennia ago by the Roman poet, Juvenal, is just as relevant today. It recurs every time we learn of a new political scandal – or suspect one is being hidden from us.“ That question surrounds three scandals today.
Trump fired 14 bombs, humiliated Iran, and saved Taiwan from annexation
It was a brief decisive war with a major global impact—in the Middle East and beyond. Israel’s victory seals the Jewish State’s status as the region’s strong horse. Iran’s hegemonic ambitious lie in ruins. So do Russia and China’s efforts to build major positions in the Middle East. Trump’s actions also strengthen US deterrence worldwide, a major boost for Taiwan’s security.
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